NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- A passing game script is suggested by the Vikings being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
- Our trusted projections expect T.J. Hockenson to accrue 9.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- T.J. Hockenson’s ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, notching just 3.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 figure last year.
- The Falcons pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 6.68 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.
- When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta’s safety corps has been great this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
