NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (-110) after it opened @ 249.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected by the projection model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
- Justin Herbert has attempted 36.9 passes per game this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
- With a remarkable rate of 269.0 adjusted passing yards per game (84th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the best quarterbacks in the league this year.
- Justin Herbert rates as one of the most effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week’s game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 3rd-fewest yards in football (just 192.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards
235
Passing Yards
