Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (-110) after it opened @ 249.5 (-114).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected by the projection model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
Justin Herbert has attempted 36.9 passes per game this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
With a remarkable rate of 269.0 adjusted passing yards per game (84th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the best quarterbacks in the league this year.
Justin Herbert rates as one of the most effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week’s game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 3rd-fewest yards in football (just 192.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards