Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Browns
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
- Noah Fant grades out in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends this year with a staggering 7.8% of his offense’s air yards accumulated.
- Noah Fant rates as one of the best pass-game TEs this year, averaging a stellar 34.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- A running game script is implied by the Seahawks being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (just 56.3 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
- Noah Fant’s 16.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 24.6.
- This year, the fierce Cleveland Browns defense has allowed a feeble 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
