NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are giant underdogs in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
- Our trusted projections expect Kendrick Bourne to total 7.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- This year, the feeble Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-largest rate in the league.
Cons
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
- Kendrick Bourne’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 74.8% to 66.8%.
- Kendrick Bourne’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, compiling just 8.12 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.61 rate last season.
- This year, the formidable Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a puny 3.8 YAC.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
