NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The model projects Kendrick Bourne to notch 7.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
- Kendrick Bourne has notched many more air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Kendrick Bourne has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s passing game.
Cons
- With a 59.1% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
- Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.7 per game) this year.
- The Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Kendrick Bourne’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 74.8% to 64.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
