WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Vikings
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-114/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-114) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).
Pros
- This week’s spread indicates a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run 64.4 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
- Alexander Mattison’s 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a a noteable boost in his running proficiency over last season’s 16.0 mark.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Chicago’s DE corps has been very bad this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Vikings this year (just 56.2 per game on average).
- While Alexander Mattison has accounted for 71.1% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Minnesota’s ground game in this contest at 50.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
