Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the league.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.
Baker Mayfield’s 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a a substantial boost in his passing ability over last season’s 63.0 rate.
Baker Mayfield’s 68.9% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a a noteworthy gain in his passing precision over last season’s 63.1% figure.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.9 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

Projection

THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards