Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Buccaneers vs. Lions
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the league.
- When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.
- Baker Mayfield’s 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a a substantial boost in his passing ability over last season’s 63.0 rate.
- Baker Mayfield’s 68.9% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a a noteworthy gain in his passing precision over last season’s 63.1% figure.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
- Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.9 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards
234
Passing Yards
