Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jimmy Garoppolo from EV Insight

Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards

Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 238.5 (-125) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most efficient passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 8.08 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.5% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 123.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Raiders have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 51.8 plays per game.
This week, Jimmy Garoppolo is predicted by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 10th-fewest yards in football (just 218.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Packers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards