Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Raiders vs. Packers
Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-124/-106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-106) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast Luke Musgrave to accrue 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
- In regards to air yards, Luke Musgrave grades out in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating an astounding 40.0 per game.
- With a remarkable 30.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave ranks among the top pass-game TEs in the league.
Cons
- The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.0 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.
- The Raiders defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
