NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Steelers vs. Ravens
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The projections expect Najee Harris to garner 16.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Among all RBs, Najee Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, making up 63.6% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- Najee Harris has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (46.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).
- Since the start of last season, the shaky Ravens run defense has allowed a colossal 3.99 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 30th-worst rate in the league.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Baltimore’s collection of DTs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
