WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Panthers to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.46 seconds per play.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Lions defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Cons
- Hayden Hurst’s 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 28.8.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Hayden Hurst has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).
- Hayden Hurst’s 65.4% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a an impressive regression in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 79.1% mark.
- Hayden Hurst’s 5.4 adjusted yards per target this season represents a a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 6.6 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
