UFC Vegas 80 MMA Betting Odds (10/7)

The UFC heads back to the Apex in Vegas Saturday for a fight night headlined by American top team product Grant Dawson and King Bobby Green. Both fighters are coming off dominant victories and want to extend their win streaks this weekend.

In the co-main event, Joe Pyfer looks to continue to build on the hype he got after getting a contract on the contender series. He’s followed that win with two emphatic knockouts and now looks to prove he deserves this co-main event slot in only his third fight in the UFC. Also on the main card is Joaquin Buckley, as he looks to create another highlight reel finish against veteran Alex Morono.

There are 11 fights overall and five fights on the main card. Below, I breakdown the main card from a betting perspective and produce a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.

Dawson vs. Green Odds

Grant Dawson -425, Bobby Green +320

With four wins, no losses and one tie in his last five fights, Dawson steps into the octagon this weekend to face Green at UFC Vegas 80. Green has mentioned in the past that he doesn’t like five-round fights and main events, so for him, it’s more about getting the win and collecting the check, it seems, but for Dawson, this win and getting through Green gets him toward his goal of becoming a UFC champion. This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup, and Dawson plays the part of the grappler. In contrast, Green is the flashy striker/brawler. Green has been with the UFC since 2013. He has 11 wins, nine losses, one draw and one no-contest.

Green brings an unorthodox style to the octagon. He doesn’t look to grapple, although he does have that in his back pocket. He would rather stand and bang with his opponents, bring out a brawl and take them off their game plans. In all of the fights that I’ve watched of Green, even though his opponents could wrestle, they would fall into the trap of brawling with Green and never get to the wrestling at all. Green has never had to lean on his wrestling outside of using his defensive grappling. Because in the standup, he usually has better skills. Green averages 6.14 significant strikes landed per minute and defends 62% of strikes thrown his way, indicating good boxing skills. He also averages just over one takedown per 15 minutes and defends 74% of takedowns coming his way. On the other hand, Dawson averages just under three significant strikes per minute and is very hittable, only defending 46% of strikes thrown his way. Still, he averages 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, along with one and a half sub attempts per minute.

The game plans are clear on what each fighter has to do. For Green to succeed, he needs to keep this fight standing, turn it into a brawl and get Dawson firing empty shots (takedown attempts) and reaching tired the deeper the war goes. For Dawson to have success, he’s going to have to capitalize on any mistakes that Green makes when he strikes; in those moments, he’s going to have to utilize his wrestling and make sure that he can close the distance so that Green can’t use his jab and boxing. The good thing for Dawson is that Green doesn’t have much variety in terms of strikes. It’s mainly just (boxing) that he uses in his hands, and he throws in the occasional kick, but it’s never really anything that can confuse or throw off his opponent.

Green is a boxer, a brawler and a showman, and like he said this past week in his interview, he’s looking to make a boring fighter exciting. Grant needs to be the boring fighter and not look to brawl because taking too many clean shots from Green never ends well. Dawson needs to be relentless with the takedown attempts, and of course, Green will defend the first few attempts. Still, eventually, he will succumb to the uncompromising approach from Dawson and end up fighting off his back in quicksand. 

Bet: Grant Dawson moneyline and under 3.5 rounds -125 | Dawson in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 +125

Pyfer vs. Alhassan Odds 

Joe Pyfer -425, Abdul Razak Alhassan +325

Pyfer debuted in the UFC in 2020 on the Contender Series against Dustin Stoltzfus. That fight abruptly ended when Pyfer broke his arm after Stoltzfus slammed him. It set Pyfer back for a while as he healed from his injury. Still, he would return in 2022 on the Contender Series with a bang and an endorsement from Dana White with the slogan “Be Joe Pyfer” after his knockout win over Ozzy Diaz. Since then, Pyfer has gone undefeated at 2-0 with two first-round knockouts over Alan Amendovski and, most recently, Gerald Meerschaert to kick off 2023. Now, in his third fight, he’s in the co-main event against the dangerous Alhassan. Pyfer has some advantages in this fight; for starters, he has height (4 in.) and reach (2 in.) advantages. He also is the younger fighter by 11 years. Not to mention that he has the power to match Alhassan in a brawl. He also has the wrestling and grappling to deter any takedown attempts that Alhassan may use to close the distance.

There is no doubt that there will be fireworks in this fight, and Alhassan, in my opinion, can knock Pyfer out, but he doesn’t have enough tools or a variety of strikes to surprise Pyfer in any way. Hassan throws mostly hooks with fight-ending intention, and He has shown in the past that he can grapple, but he only attempts 0.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. Pyfer has the grappling chops and 100% takedown defense to limit any paths to the ground for Alhassan, which is a huge problem when you are outsized and perhaps outclassed in an MMA fight. Alhassan will want to kickbox while Pyfer will be out to collect a scalp and prove why he’s the next big ticket in the middleweight division.

From a betting perspective, I expect Pyfer to get it done inside the distance, but not as early as everyone thinks. While Alhassan may be outclassed in this matchup, he has only been stopped once in his career, and his last test against another hard striker went the distance due in part to Buckley’s grappling Approach. I think Pyfer stands and bangs with Alhassan but will also implement his grappling to limit damage, keep the fight in his control, and find a finish late in round two or three. 

Bet: Joe Pyfer moneyline and over 1.5 rounds +240 | Pyfer/Alhassan over 1.5 rounds +160

Morono vs. Buckley Odds

Alex Morono +140, Joaquin Buckley -174

Buckley made his debut back in 2020 on short notice against Kevin Holland. As an athletic, exciting fighter, Buckley is very explosive and brings fast hands and decent wrestling into the octagon. He averages 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes; he’s accurate on 34% of those takedowns and defends 66%of takedowns coming his way. He also has a long reach for a short fighter (76 in.), which helps as he was usually the smaller fighter at middleweight. Now, as a welterweight, he still finds himself as the smaller fighter, but he has considerable power and speed to hurt these smaller fighters at 170 pounds.

Buckley is on a mission in the UFC to be a star. He got a boost in his second fight when he went up against Impa Kasangany and went viral with one of the most electrifying knockouts in UFC history. He would strike while the iron was hot and collect another win in his following matchup against Jordan Wright with another knockout. Then, with momentum on his side, he would run into Alessio di Chirico and abruptly be sent back into the middle of the pack of the middleweight division. Buckley is 3-2 in his last five fights. He has been finished once and lost once by unanimous decision. His last win came against Andre Fialho in his debut in the welterweight division. Now, in his second fight as a welterweight, Buckley looks to take out veteran Morono.

Morono will look to use his experience to match anything that Buckley has to offer. Buckley is fast, strong and powerful. But he lacks variety in his rhythm, and after a few minutes, he becomes predictable in his movements. Buckley utilizes a blitzing style that is exciting to watch, but if he doesn’t find a knockout early, it’ll give Morono a chance to settle into his jab and point and fight his way to a victory by fighting smart and staying clear of any power shots.

In contrast, Morono doesn’t have the reach advantage; he does have more volume, averaging nearly triple the significant strikes thrown by Buckley. Morono is also more accurate by 10% with his strikes and can submit Buckley on the ground. I like Buckley as a fighter, but he still makes a lot of mistakes and seems to be overlooking Alex Morono, which is his first mistake of many this weekend. Therefore, his moneyline price tag is too expensive at -175, so I will side with the Journeyman Alex Morono on his seventh contract to find a way to win again as a slight underdog. 

Bet: Alex Morono ML +140 | Buckley/Morono over 1.5 rounds -145 

Dober vs. Glenn Odds

Drew Dober -450, Rick Glenn +345

Dober is on the path to redemption this weekend when he takes on Glenn. For so long, Dober has been an exciting fighter and more impressively, seemed to have godlike Durability. This is why his last loss was such a shock, as the granite chin of Dober seemed to crack. If that is the case, then maybe Dober will have to retool before he gets cut and sent to the regionals or, even worse the PFL. Dober has been with the UFC since 2013, but it wasn’t until 2019 that his fights became must-watch TV, with wins over Polo Reyes, Nasrat Haqparast, Terrence McKinney, Bobby Green and Rafael Alves, all by stoppage. Dober is well-rounded, capable of stopping takedowns and giving the fans of the UFC what they want. It’s also important to note that Dober doesn’t want a title in the future, which makes him even more dangerous and exciting because he doesn’t have the added pressure of competing to become a champion. For him, it’s about violence, and this weekend, he brings the violence to Rick Glenn. Glenn is also a finisher with 11 wins by submission and five wins by knockout. Still, most of his victories in the UFC have come by decision and with an injury that kept him away from activity for nearly two years. Glenn is at a disadvantage here against a much more active fighter who is more powerful and, in my opinion, has fought the more challenging matches. Both fighters have been fighting for quite some time, and their professional records speak for themselves. I just think that at this point in their careers, Glenn is on a decline, while Dober still has enough durability and power in the tank to keep giving the fans the violence and exciting fights they pay to watch. 

Bet: Dober/Glenn under 1.5 rounds -115 

Algeo vs. Hernandez Odds

Bill Algeo -130, Alexander Hernandez +110

Kicking off the main card is an exciting matchup between the King of Prussia, Algeo, and the Great Ape, Hernandez. The fighters are on opposite runs as Algeo is 3-2 in his last five, and Hernandez is 2-3. Still, with wins in their previous matchups, both guys want to extend their win streak up the ranks. Algeo fights with a long and big frame but, at the same time, never utilizes any of his reach or height in his fights. Instead, he tends to lean on his durability to withstand chaos from his opponents and outlast them in the later rounds. He has some impressive comeback victories in his career, and it’s because of his heart that I believe he has been in the UFC this long. All but two of Algeo’s fights thus far in the UFC have gone the distance, and I think this fight also goes the distance. Hernandez is an exciting fighter who has been with the promotion since 2018. But while his berserker style seemed to have gotten him a debut win over Beneil Dairush and a subsequent success with Aubin-Mercier, his momentum was snapped by an aging Donald Cerrone. That loss to Cerrone seemed to have damaged Hernandez mentally more than physically and exposed vital holes in his game. Hernandez can still use his style to power through lesser competition. Still, his ceiling is reached with fighters like Billy Quarantillo, Renato Moicano and Drew Dober, who all stopped Hernandez violently. This fight can go either way, but I like it to go the distance, and if there is a finish, it’ll be late in the third round.

Bet: Algeo/Hernandez over 2.5 rounds -125