WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.5 plays per game.
- With an extraordinary 84.0% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, Evan Engram places as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.
- Evan Engram has notched quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
- After accumulating 35.0 air yards per game last year, Evan Engram has posted significant losses this year, now pacing 27.0 per game.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 35.0) vs. TEs this year.
- Since the start of last season, the tough Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a puny 5.6 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
