WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Ryan TannehillPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 208.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the league (284.0 per game) against the Colts defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Colts defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Titans to pass on 55.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
- In this week’s game, Ryan Tannehill is anticipated by the model to average the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.5.
- The Titans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Ryan Tannehill has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (178.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards
248
Passing Yards
