Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Ryan Tannehill from EV Insight

Ryan TannehillPassing Yards

Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 208.5 (-114).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the league (284.0 per game) against the Colts defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Colts defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Titans to pass on 55.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
In this week’s game, Ryan Tannehill is anticipated by the model to average the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.5.
The Titans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Ryan Tannehill has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (178.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards