Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Vikings
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-100).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
- The projections expect Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.1% pass rate.
- The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
- Hayden Hurst’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 79.1% to 67.8%.
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
