Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to notch 4.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
