Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to notch 4.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin has been among the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Cons

The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards