Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Ravens vs. Colts
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Lamar Jackson’s passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 62.9% to 75.5%.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the most effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 7.62 yards-per-target while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Cons
- The Ravens are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the league.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the bottom quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging 194.0 yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
217
Passing Yards
217
Passing Yards
