Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matt BreidaRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
49ers vs. Giants
Right now, Matt Breida’s rushing yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-115) after it opened @ 32.5 (-120).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Matt Breida to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (40.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.6% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Giants are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 59.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 76 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards
43
Rushing Yards
