Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Bills
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-135) after it opened @ 51.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 65.0 yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.38 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the 10th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
