Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Ravens vs. Texans
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-137) after it opened @ 54.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Ravens are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- J.K. Dobbins has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (87th percentile).
- Opposing offenses have run for the most yards in the NFL (173 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
