Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for J.K. Dobbins from EV Insight

J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards

Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-137) after it opened @ 54.5 (-117).

Pros

The Ravens are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
J.K. Dobbins has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (87th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the most yards in the NFL (173 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards