Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This NFL opens the 2023 season Thursday with a fantastic matchup between the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the popular upstart Detroit Lions. You can find all our Week 1 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
I already posted one of my favorite props in last week’s Friday Futures article on Amon-Ra St. Brown. Let’s take a look at two of my other favorite props for Thursday’s season opener.
Week 1 Thursday Night Player Props
Skyy Moore Over 38.8 Receiving Yards
(-118, Caesars)
There is not much data to project Skyy Moore’s receiving yardage, since he played sparingly for most of last season. He finished the season with 22 receptions on just 33 targets and failed to record a single regular-season game with at least a 50% snap share. However, his playoff usage provided much optimism for this season, garnering seven targets in the AFC Championship game and scoring this touchdown in the Super Bowl.
Every time a coach or player on the Chiefs asks about Moore, they effuse optimism. Moore’s 4.4 speed and massive production at Western Michigan provide a foundation for a breakout 2023 season. He has secured a role in 2 WR sets entering the season and is tethered to a quarterback that we project to have 340.6 passing yards in the Thursday night opener.
With tight end Travis Kelce potentially out due to a knee injury suffered in practice this week, there should be even more receiving yards to distribute to the Chiefs wide receivers. Moore projects to be the most versatile and reliable wideout in this Kansas City offense, with sixth-year wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling having cemented a 33-receptions-per-year average.
I love Moore in this game, and I have loved him as a fantasy pick all season. I’m starting off Thursday Night Football by backing his over 38.8 receiving yards prop at Caesars.
Patrick Mahomes Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
(-115, Caesars)
This line struck me as oddly high when it first came out, but upon closer inspection, I really like the over.
The Lions man defense should definitely open running lanes for Patrick Mahomes, who may need to generate even more offense with his legs due to the potential Kelce absence. Mahomes beat this prop number in 10 regular season games last year, including five games of over 30 rushing yards. No team allowed more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last year than Detroit, who permitted 700 total rushing yards to the opposition’s signal-caller. That was 175 more yards than the next closest team, Miami.
In a high-scoring matchup, with Mahomes possibly missing his key receiving weapon, we will back the over on his TNF rushing prop. We project Mahomes for 17.3 rushing yards, an almost three-yard difference on this number.
