Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-131) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Calvin Ridley to accrue 8.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 130.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
