Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Calvin Ridley from EV Insight

Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards

Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-131) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Calvin Ridley to accrue 8.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 130.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards