Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alexander Mattison from EV Insight

Alexander MattisonRushing Yards

Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (+102).

Pros

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to total 14.6 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (61.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.8% in games he has played).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards