Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (+102).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to total 14.6 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (61.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.8% in games he has played).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
