NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 17.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
- Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly more yards per game (102.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
- Josh Jacobs’s running efficiency has improved this season, notching 5.04 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.12 rate last season.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders will be forced to utilize backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Raiders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 107 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
