WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (+100) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to earn 6.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this year (20.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.8%).
- David Njoku has put up significantly more air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
- David Njoku’s ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this year, totaling a mere 5.61 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.64 rate last year.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
