Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-115) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to total 5.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
Hunter Henry has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry’s 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 34.8.
Hunter Henry has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards