Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards