NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Daniel JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-110) after it opened @ 214.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Daniel Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a terrific 67.4% Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.09 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the league.
- The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 31.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
206
Passing Yards
206
Passing Yards
