Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 189.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 189.5 (-113) after it opened @ 196.5 (-115).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Rams rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 61.5% pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 61.9% to 67.7%.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 8.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 6th percentile among QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards