Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

Cons

Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 58.3%.
Russell Wilson has been among the least effective passers in the league this year, averaging just 6.64 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 25th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards