Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup quarterback Nick Foles in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.4% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accrue 8.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Michael Pittman has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Michael Pittman’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating just 6.97 yards-per-target vs a 8.64 mark last year.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (64%) to wide receivers this year (64.0%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards