Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 9.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 23.0% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 123.0) versus WRs this year.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has displayed good efficiency against WRs this year, yielding 7.52 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards