WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-114) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Gerald Everett to notch 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in the league.
- Gerald Everett’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 82.2% to 68.5%.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 40.0) vs. TEs this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown strong efficiency against TEs this year, allowing 7.08 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
