Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+110/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-135) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Tyler Higbee has been among the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 36.0 yards per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.8 plays per game.
Tyler Higbee has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (68.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (85.1%).
Tyler Higbee has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards