Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+110/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-135) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- Tyler Higbee has been among the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 36.0 yards per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.8 plays per game.
- Tyler Higbee has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (68.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (85.1%).
- Tyler Higbee has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
