WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Keenan Allen has been among the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 70.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in the league.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 133.0) versus WRs this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wideouts this year, yielding 7.72 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the league.
- The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
