Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-133) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Michael Pittman has put up far fewer air yards this season (63.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Michael Pittman’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 7.08 yards-per-target compared to a 8.64 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards