Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 120.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 120.5 (-120) after it opened @ 104.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 27.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing squads have run for the most yards in football (169 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
- The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this week (73.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.2% in games he has played).
- Derrick Henry has rushed for many fewer yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (105.0).
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
118
Rushing Yards
118
Rushing Yards
