Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 120.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 120.5 (-120) after it opened @ 104.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 27.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Opposing squads have run for the most yards in football (169 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this week (73.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.2% in games he has played).
Derrick Henry has rushed for many fewer yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (105.0).
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
118
Rushing Yards