Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Malik Willis from EV Insight

Malik WillisPassing Yards

Right now, Malik Willis’s passing yards prop is set at 118.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 118.5 (-115) after it opened @ 125.5 (-113).

Pros

The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the league.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Cons

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
124
Passing Yards