Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-121) after it opened @ 14.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 43.1 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Jordan Akins has garnered a colossal 9.1% of his team’s air yards this year: 77th percentile among TEs.
- Jordan Akins’s 21.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 16.0.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Jordan Akins’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.5% to 75.4%.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
