Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.7% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 8.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson has accumulated a monstrous 91.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among wide receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (166.0) versus WRs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Diontae Johnson has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (57.0) this season than he did last season (73.0).
Diontae Johnson has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a lowly 6.64 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 5th percentile among WRs
Diontae Johnson’s ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this year, totaling just 2.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.97 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards