Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Seahawks
Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.4 plays per game.
- Jerick McKinnon has run for many more yards per game (21.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
- Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (165 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Rushing Yards
30
Rushing Yards
