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Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

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Juwan Johnson

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Browns vs. Saints

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-106/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-106) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).

Pros

  • Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this year (68.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (34.6%).
  • THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to total 4.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
  • Juwan Johnson has compiled many more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
  • Juwan Johnson has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).
  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
  • The forecast calls for 25-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.

Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 16 NFL Betting Preview: Saints/Browns Next Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Latavius Murray from EV Insight