Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-106/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-106) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).

Pros

Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this year (68.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (34.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to total 4.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has compiled many more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 25-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards