WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-115) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.23 yards-per-carry.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his team’s running game this week (41.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.4% in games he has played).
- Leonard Fournette has run for substantially fewer yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).
- Leonard Fournette’s ground efficiency has worsened this season, compiling just 3.81 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards
41
Rushing Yards
