Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-118).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-120).

Pros

The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-most yards in football (144 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.
The Chicago Bears defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 29.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (39.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.8% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards