Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 21.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Christian McCaffrey has generated 67.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his team’s offense this year, playing on 71.1% of snaps compared to just 60.0% last year.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards