Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 130.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 130.5 (-120) after it opened @ 152.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Andy Dalton has passed for a lot more yards per game (212.0) this year than he did last year (182.0).
Andy Dalton’s throwing effectiveness has been refined this year, totaling 7.39 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.19 mark last year.
The Cleveland Browns safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
149
Passing Yards