Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Browns vs. Saints
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 130.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 130.5 (-120) after it opened @ 152.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Andy Dalton has passed for a lot more yards per game (212.0) this year than he did last year (182.0).
- Andy Dalton’s throwing effectiveness has been refined this year, totaling 7.39 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.19 mark last year.
- The Cleveland Browns safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
149
Passing Yards
149
Passing Yards
