Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 14.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (85th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (54.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.7% in games he has played).
- Joe Mixon has been among the worst running backs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.64 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
- Opposing teams have run for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
