Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-125) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to total 17.0 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.40 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for many fewer yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
The New York Giants defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards