WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Chris MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Texans vs. Chiefs
Right now, Chris Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a massive 14.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Chris Moore has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Cons
- The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.4 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 5th-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
