Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-127) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (64.0) to tight ends this year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (75.5%) versus tight ends this year (75.5%).
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.12 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in the league.

Cons

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards